USA Energy Overview 

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Electricity security in the United States continues to be a critical issue, as the risk of outages persists in several regions, especially during the winter season of 2022/23. The vulnerabilities were exposed by the Texas outages in February 2021, highlighting the country's susceptibility to extreme weather and prolonged cold spells. The North American Reliability Corporation's (NERC) winter reliability assessment released in November 2022 warns of potential load shedding in regions such as the US Southeast, Texas, the Midwest, and New England due to generation and transmission outages, fuel supply shortages, and unavailability of natural gas infrastructure.

In December 2022, a severe winter storm left more than 1.5 million customers without power, further underscoring the challenges faced by the US electricity system. While electricity demand experienced a notable increase of 2.6% in 2022, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, a slowdown is projected for 2023, with a decline of 0.6% expected due to an anticipated economic deceleration. However, the outlook shows a return to modest growth, averaging around 1.2% annually in 2024 and 2025.

Gas-fired generation witnessed an 8% growth in 2022, reversing the previous year's decline of 3%, thanks to milder temperatures and the stabilization of gas prices. Nonetheless, the anticipated decrease in electricity demand for 2023 is expected to result in a 3% reduction in gas-fired generation. Coal-fired generation, on the other hand, saw a decline of 7% in 2022, reversing the 15% upswing recorded in 2021, which marked the first annual increase since 2014. Over the forecast period of 2023-2025, falling natural gas prices are predicted to facilitate a resurgence in coal-to-gas switching, while renewable energy expansion aims to curtail total fossil fuel-fired generation. Coal-fired output is anticipated to decline by an average of 7% per year during this period.
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Hydrogen power output
Hydropower output experienced a slight increase of approximately 3% in 2022 as hydro-producing regions benefited from the easing of long-term drought conditions. Nevertheless, hydro output remained slightly below the 2017-2021 average by 4%. Meanwhile, wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) sources continued their robust growth trajectory throughout 2022. Wind generation expanded by 14%, while solar output surged by 27%. Looking ahead to 2025, wind generation is expected to grow by 19% compared to 2022, with solar PV generation projected to witness a significant increase of 56% over the same period. These advancements will be bolstered by the Inflation Reduction Act passed in August 2022, which allocated USD 30 billion for targeted grant and loan programs to drive investments in clean electricity.

Nuclear output remained relatively stable between 2021 and 2022, following slight declines caused by the retirement of three reactors in previous years. However, the commissioning of Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in the first and fourth quarters of 2023, respectively, is anticipated to boost nuclear output by 2% in 2023. Additionally, the California legislature approved a bill extending the operational lifespan of Diablo Canyon Units 1 and 2 from 2024 and 2025 to 2029 and 2030, respectively, providing a mid-term boost to nuclear generation capacity.

Addressing electricity security concerns, enhancing renewable energy integration, and ensuring the reliability of the nuclear fleet remain key priorities as the United States seeks to navigate the evolving energy landscape and meet its power needs in a sustainable and resilient manner.